Backtesting
Beste strategie
favoriet (ensemble)
WK 2022 · ROI +41.2% · 6 bets
Winstgevende markten
BTTS+13.1%
OVER_25+4.0%
1X2-1.2%
Best presterende modellen
elo+11.8%
monte_carlo+8.6%
poisson-8.1%
ensemble-12.1%
WK 2022
| Strategie | Markt | Model | Bets | Hit rate | Gem. odd | Winst | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| favoriet | 1X2 | ensemble | 6 | 66.7% | 2.21 | +2.47 | +41.2% |
| value_1x2 | 1X2 | ensemble | 24 | 41.7% | 3.74 | +9.75 | +40.6% |
| value_btts | BTTS | monte_carlo | 11 | 63.6% | 2.22 | +4.16 | +37.8% |
| value_over25 | OVER_25 | monte_carlo | 6 | 50.0% | 2.37 | +1.08 | +18.0% |
| favoriet | 1X2 | elo | 36 | 61.1% | 1.85 | +4.60 | +12.8% |
| value_1x2 | 1X2 | poisson | 71 | 22.5% | 4.60 | +7.54 | +10.6% |
| value_1x2 | 1X2 | elo | 44 | 54.5% | 2.19 | +4.51 | +10.3% |
WK 2018
| Strategie | Markt | Model | Bets | Hit rate | Gem. odd | Winst | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| favoriet | 1X2 | poisson | 1 | 100.0% | 2.85 | +1.85 | +185.0% |
| value_1x2 | 1X2 | elo | 31 | 61.3% | 2.09 | +6.35 | +20.5% |
| favoriet | 1X2 | elo | 28 | 60.7% | 1.95 | +2.75 | +9.8% |
| value_btts | BTTS | monte_carlo | 10 | 50.0% | 2.16 | +0.84 | +8.4% |
| value_1x2 | 1X2 | poisson | 60 | 25.0% | 4.45 | +1.46 | +2.4% |
| favoriet | 1X2 | ensemble | 8 | 25.0% | 2.19 | -4.02 | -50.2% |
| value_over25 | OVER_25 | monte_carlo | 5 | 20.0% | 2.40 | -2.53 | -50.6% |
| value_1x2 | 1X2 | ensemble | 20 | 15.0% | 3.42 | -13.12 | -65.6% |
WK 2014
| Strategie | Markt | Model | Bets | Hit rate | Gem. odd | Winst | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| value_over25 | OVER_25 | monte_carlo | 5 | 60.0% | 2.39 | +1.99 | +39.8% |
| value_btts | BTTS | monte_carlo | 5 | 60.0% | 2.21 | +1.61 | +32.2% |
| value_1x2 | 1X2 | elo | 30 | 63.3% | 2.10 | +8.29 | +27.6% |
| favoriet | 1X2 | ensemble | 5 | 60.0% | 2.36 | +1.21 | +24.2% |
| favoriet | 1X2 | elo | 27 | 63.0% | 1.96 | +4.34 | +16.1% |
| value_1x2 | 1X2 | ensemble | 19 | 31.6% | 3.52 | -0.51 | -2.7% |
| value_1x2 | 1X2 | poisson | 55 | 16.4% | 4.45 | -17.56 | -31.9% |
| favoriet | 1X2 | poisson | 1 | 0.0% | 2.88 | -1.00 | -100.0% |
WK 2010
| Strategie | Markt | Model | Bets | Hit rate | Gem. odd | Winst | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| value_over25 | OVER_25 | monte_carlo | 6 | 50.0% | 2.31 | +0.54 | +9.0% |
| value_1x2 | 1X2 | elo | 29 | 55.2% | 1.90 | +0.17 | +0.6% |
| favoriet | 1X2 | elo | 27 | 55.6% | 1.80 | -0.87 | -3.2% |
| value_1x2 | 1X2 | poisson | 67 | 19.4% | 4.56 | -8.94 | -13.3% |
| value_btts | BTTS | monte_carlo | 9 | 33.3% | 2.23 | -2.35 | -26.1% |
| value_1x2 | 1X2 | ensemble | 11 | 9.1% | 4.42 | -7.96 | -72.4% |
Historische odds zijn gesimuleerd (ELO-kansen + 5% marge + ruis); resultaten zijn indicatief voor modelkwaliteit, niet voor exact historisch rendement. Zie docs/ARCHITECTUUR.md §2.6.